A historian of empire has rubbished the notion that Donald Trump’s tariff war spells an end to globalisation—the political and economic order which has thwarted so many of the aspirations of the decolonisation movement.

Martin Thomas addressed the US President's increasingly isolationist foreign policy during the first of a public lecture series on decolonisation, organised by the Independent Social Research Foundation (ISRF). 

During the lecture, he claimed that decolonisation has been more transformative politically and culturally than economically, with the “north-south geometry of global capitalism” remaining relatively intact. 

After detailing the collapse of European colonialism following the major global conflicts of the 20th century, Thomas turned his attention to the current political moment. 

“I don’t think globalisation is over,” Thomas said. “Whether or not we are transitioning to a protectionist world in which an isolationist America is going to stick with its tariff policies. 

“That is not in and of itself going to undermine and completely change the fabric of a global trading system, which is essentially predicated on the needs of the wealthy in the north and not on the needs of the more populous but less wealthy south. 

“If anything, tariffs as a form of punitive taxation on the poorest, if you like, are an even more extreme iteration of what I was describing, but I don’t think in and of themselves they end globalisation.”

Thomas, an ISRF Fellow and Professor of History at the University of Exeter, looked at how successful decolonialisation has been in remaking the modern world.

During the lecture at Gresham College on April 9, Thomas explained how following the First and Second World Wars, many former colonial territories achieved independence, asserting a right to national self-determination.

However, Thomas argued that decolonisation as a political form requires “economic substance” to have real meaning and that the decline of empire in many ways created the conditions for globalisation to flourish. This often happened at the expense of these newly formed nation states. 

“The economic life of empires reflected forms of political economy that reinforced inequalities in the distribution of global power between north and south,” Thomas said. 

“Yes, decolonisation had promised an end to all of that, but it failed to deliver as much economically and socially as it did politically or constitutionally. Sovereignty changes, in other words, were insufficient in and of themselves to stop capitalist globalisation in its tracks."

Thomas explained how reforms pursued by anti-colonial modernisers were often dependent on foreign money—“which sustained forms of influence and obligation which jarred with assertions of sovereignty”—a theme he developed during a question and answer session at the end of his talk. 

Thomas discussed how kleptocracies emerged after decolonisation, often hoarding foreign capital. He explained how “authoritarian governments in formerly colonised spaces” have kept development money either for themselves or for pet projects, such as large infrastructure development. 

For Thomas, this phenomenon is reflected in arguments around a post-aid world, where the United States and European nations, including the United Kingdom, have reduced support for overseas development.

This trend can also be seen as linked to the recent “tariff revolution,” which has prompted suggestions that globalisation is coming to an end, a claim recently made by Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones.

And, while Trump has shown some increased flexibility around tariffs in recent weeks, he shows no signs of turning back on aggressive cuts to foreign aid as part of a campaign to shrink the size of the government. 

Thomas added: “Part of that is, according to those who want to see an end to aid of that type, the argument that aid has been misappropriated and does not achieve economic growth, the kind of dispersal of power that we want to see.

“That again is applying these rich world calculations, aid is all about making the global south more like the global north—why the hell should it be.”

This lecture was the first in the ISRF’s series of three lectures on decolonisation, which are being delivered in partnership with Gresham College.

The second lecture in the series, by Professor Julia Laite, took place on Wednesday 30 April and examined the colonisation of Newfoundland. The third and final lecture is by Professor Adam Hanieh, who will speak about “Oil, Decolonisation, and the Future of the Climate Emergency.” It will take place on 15 May.